How Often Do Favourites Win In Football

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  1. How Often Does The Favorite Win In College Football
  2. How Often Do Nfl Favorites Win
  3. How Often Do Favourites Win In Football
  4. How Often Do Favorites Win In Football Teams
  5. How Often Do Favorites Win In Football Game

How important is considering the betting number the books set? I’m often asked this question by clients and wanted to shed some light on it.

How Often Does The Favorite Win In College Football

Is it simply better to just try to pick the outright winner of the game or focus more on the line?

  1. The recently concluded India vs Australia series will go down as one of the best of all the time, with the classic tale of the underdog team delivering the knockout punch. For India, it was all.
  2. The beauty of English football is the exciting and popular teams. There are some teams that are expected to win a particular match drop points and the sides expected to struggle do well. This applies to Outright betting too, with clubs favourites for relegation defying the odds and challenge for promotion.
  3. Win - A bet that will only payout if the selection comes in first/ wins the event. Place - A bet that will only payout if the selection wins or is placed within a predetermined number of positions or places. Each-Way – This is a combination of both win and place bets of equal value. Each-Way bets may be placed on a single event or on two.

How Often Do Nfl Favorites Win

Often

Similarly if you like a Favorite but feel squeamish about laying points, you can lay the odds on the Money line and you'll win if your team wins the game, be it by 1 point or 31 points. You'll lay more than 11 to 10 for the privilege of having your team just win the game, but there may be times when playing the Money Line is more advantageous.

The fact of the matter is that the number doesn’t have a huge impact versus simply picking the outright winner until you get to a team laying over a touchdown. Not that you shouldn’t consider the spread at all with these numbers, it just doesn’t come into play that often.

I looked at every NCAAF game since 1980 and looked to see what percentage of underdogs won outright and what percentage of underdogs lost the game but still ended up covering.

NCAA Football Betting Results: How Often Point Spread Comes into Play

There’s one thing that stands out above the rest when looking at the table below.

How Often Do Favourites Win In Football

On average, the betting spreads only impact about 25% of games when compared to simply picking the outright winner.

That means that roughly 75% of NCAAF games, simply picking the outright winner would also result in that team covering the number.

This is, of course, more easily said than done, but I think it can be useful when considering who to back when wagering on a game.

LineGamesUnderdog Lost/CoveredUnderdog Outright WinOutright Win %Underdog Lost/Covered
-1.54882124049.18%4.30%
-26442529045.03%3.88%
-2.58205236444.39%6.34%
-311697351343.88%6.24%
-3.598413536937.50%13.72%
-47438628037.69%11.57%
-4.55438119636.10%14.92%
-55597620837.21%13.60%
-5.55639118432.68%16.16%
-671311123833.38%15.57%
-6.585716727632.21%19.49%
-7106520231529.58%18.97%
-7.567016317926.72%24.33%
-858514515225.98%24.79%
-8.543711012829.29%25.17%
-948111912525.99%24.74%
-9.5403978621.34%24.07%
-1066716215322.94%24.29%
-10.545914811124.18%32.24%
-114281179522.20%27.34%
-11.53071006922.48%32.57%
-123821248020.94%32.46%
-12.5332936318.98%28.01%
-1350616410019.76%32.41%
-13.54611337215.62%28.85%
-146031808614.26%29.85%
-14.54201596415.24%37.86%
-153411275215.25%37.24%
-15.5243763313.58%31.28%
-163681224512.23%33.15%
-16.5301111299.63%36.88%
-174941745010.12%35.22%
-17.52871083311.50%37.63%
-18273111238.42%40.66%
-18.516275159.26%46.30%
-19279108269.32%38.71%
-19.5165701911.52%42.42%
-20291112217.22%38.49%
-20.521285136.13%40.09%
-21340128298.53%37.65%
-21.518785105.35%45.45%
-2223098104.35%42.61%
-22.51295564.65%42.64%
-2320879104.81%37.98%
-23.51687263.57%42.86%
-24293109124.10%37.20%
-24.51506574.67%43.33%
-251637184.91%43.56%
-25.51054454.76%41.90%
-261545842.60%37.66%
-26.51024554.90%44.12%
-271666842.41%40.96%
-27.51426342.82%44.37%
-281877863.21%41.71%
-28.51054732.86%44.76%
-291085843.70%53.70%
-29.5733511.37%47.95%
-301325810.76%43.94%
-30.51014343.96%42.57%
-311024332.94%42.16%
-31.5663823.03%57.58%
-321106100.00%55.45%
-32.5673422.99%50.75%
-33823811.22%46.34%
OVERALL233755986554223.71%25.61%

Performance of Every College Football Betting Line Against the Spread

The table below lists the performance by closing line for regular season NCAA football games since 1980. We’ve included ATS, straight up records, winning percentages for both, and margins for both. ATS margin shows, on average, how many points each team covers by (positive number) or fails to cover by (negative number).

There are some interesting trends that seem to emerge, but for the most part this information is just provided for your information. We aren’t advocating betting any games specifically based on their closing number, however, you may want to consider the information when you are placing your bets.

How Often Do Favorites Win In Football Teams

LineGamesATS WinATS LossATS PushATS MarginATS Win Pct.SU WinSU LossSU PushSU MarginSU WIN %
034416817240.3149.40%16817240.3149.40%
-0.562332901.0553.20%332900.5553.20%
-1755336393260.7946.10%36238850.2148.30%
-1.548822726100.9446.50%24224060.5650.20%
-2644313315160.5749.80%34829061.4354.50%
-2.582040441601.0249.30%444364121.4855.00%
-31169514586690.8446.70%642513142.1655.60%
-3.598448050400.2648.80%60636993.7662.20%
-4743351366260.0649.00%452280114.0661.70%
-4.554326627700.4949.00%34319644.9963.60%
-5559257284180.147.50%34620855.1062.50%
-5.556328827500.3651.20%37718425.8667.20%
-6713349349150.4450.00%46923866.4466.30%
-6.585741444300.1448.30%57327686.3667.50%
-71065490517580.4748.70%737315137.4770.10%
-7.567032834201.1549.00%48817938.6573.20%
-8585270297181.2247.60%43215219.2274.00%
-8.543719923800.3445.50%30812818.1670.60%
-9481227244100.2748.20%34912578.7373.60%
-9.540322018301.9354.60%31486311.4378.50%
-10667320315320.6450.40%510153410.6476.90%
-10.545920025900.8843.60%34311159.6275.60%
-1142820721290.9949.40%33195211.9977.70%
-11.530713816900.7345.00%23669210.7777.40%
-12382167204110.6145.00%29980311.3978.90%
-12.533217615601.6953.00%26663314.1980.90%
-13506228264140.946.30%402100412.1080.10%
-13.546125620501.8955.50%38472515.3984.20%
-14603325266122.0955.00%51586216.0985.70%
-14.542019722300.4846.90%35664014.9884.80%
-1534115517970.4346.40%28452514.5784.50%
-15.52431341090155.10%20833216.5086.30%
-1636819816731.1654.20%32145217.1687.70%
-16.530116114000.4753.50%27129116.9790.30%
-17494246224241.0752.30%44250218.0789.80%
-17.528714614101.0250.90%25333118.5288.50%
-1827313113480.9749.40%24623418.9791.40%
-18.5162729001.244.40%14615117.3090.70%
-1927913813470.9750.70%25126219.9790.60%
-19.5165768901.0346.10%14519118.4788.40%
-2029114913391.0252.80%26821221.0292.70%
-20.52121149800.9253.80%19913021.4293.90%
-2134017415791.5452.60%31129022.5491.50%
-21.5187929500.2249.20%17710021.7294.70%
-2223011510871.1451.60%22010023.1495.70%
-22.5129686101.0652.70%1236023.5695.30%
-232081158940.0256.40%19710122.9895.20%
-23.5168907800.5853.60%1626024.0896.40%
-24293161121112.0457.10%28112026.0495.90%
-24.5150787200.0152.00%1437024.4995.30%
-25163767980.3449.00%1548025.1395.20%
-25.5105564900.3753.30%1005127.4997.40%
-26154876251.4958.40%1494026.3695.10%
-26.5102525000.1451.00%975027.3097.20%
-27166907241.6755.60%1624028.6797.60%
-27.5142756700.252.80%1384027.3097.20%
-28187958480.3153.10%1816028.3196.80%
-28.5105555000.252.40%1013128.3097.10%
-29108456212.6942.10%1044026.3196.30%
-29.573373600.2850.70%721029.7898.60%
-30132705932.2754.30%1311032.2799.20%
-30.5101544701.8753.50%974032.3796.00%
-31102494670.8151.60%993031.8197.10%
-31.566264000.4839.40%642031.0297.00%
-32110426173.1540.80%1100028.85100.00%
-32.567313601.4946.30%652031.0197.00%
-3382423910.2451.90%811032.7698.80%
-33.554252900.1346.30%540033.37100.00%
-3487414420.648.20%860133.40100.00%
-34.555322301.4158.20%550035.91100.00%
-3593434821.4347.30%921033.5798.90%
-35.559273201.0645.80%581034.4498.30%
-3660352500.158.30%582035.9096.70%
-36.534132102.7938.20%322033.7194.10%
-3766362733.4757.10%660040.47100.00%
-37.534122202.2635.30%340035.24100.00%
-3854312122.8559.60%540040.85100.00%
-38.535181703.9651.40%341034.5497.10%
-3939221433.6961.10%390042.69100.00%
-39.5209110145.00%200040.50100.00%
-4045251821.1658.10%450041.16100.00%
-40.533161700.9548.50%330039.55100.00%
-4141172220.6343.60%410041.63100.00%
-41.52091102.1545.00%200039.35100.00%
-4243192311.2345.20%430043.23100.00%
-42.527151202.0955.60%270044.59100.00%
-433092106.530.00%300036.50100.00%
-43.5179803.552.90%170040.00100.00%
-443226606.5381.20%320050.53100.00%
-44.5158702.2353.30%150046.73100.00%
-4521111006.9552.40%201038.0595.20%
-45.5134906.4230.80%130039.08100.00%
-462161232.1933.30%210043.81100.00%
-46.51641203.0625.00%160043.44100.00%
-47147701.7950.00%140045.21100.00%
-47.596302.6166.70%90044.89100.00%
-4893515.8937.50%90042.11100.00%
-48.5104601.140.00%100047.40100.00%
-4914581338.50%140046.00100.00%
-49.572505.6428.60%70043.86100.00%
-50103702.430.00%100047.60100.00%
-50.562400.1733.30%60050.33100.00%
-5164205.1766.70%60056.17100.00%
-51.553201.360.00%50050.20100.00%
-52431011.2575.00%40063.25100.00%
-52.582608.3825.00%80044.12100.00%
-532020130.00%0040.00100.00%
-53.54220150.00%40052.50100.00%
-5442200.2550.00%40053.75100.00%
-54.511004.5100.00%0059.00100.00%
-556231640.00%60049.00100.00%
-55.522006100.00%061.50100.00%
-5630304.330.00%30051.67100.00%
-56.5202040.00%20052.50100.00%
-571010320.00%10025.00100.00%
-57.510108.50.00%0049.00100.00%
-5853204.460.00%50062.40100.00%
-58.52110850.00%20050.50100.00%
-59312011.6733.30%30047.33100.00%
-59.52110550.00%20164.50100.00%
-60101030.00%0057.00100.00%
-61101070.00%10054.00100.00%
-61.521101.550.00%20060.00100.00%
-62.511000.5100.00%10063.00100.00%
-6311001100.00%10064.00100.00%
-64.510109.50.00%0055.00100.00%

You’ll notice a few records, like +3 dogs are profitable blindly. I’d factor that into any college football teasers you think about making. Taking a small dog across numbers like 3, 4, 6, and 7 is going to lead to some profitable wagers.

How Often Do Favorites Win In Football Game

More ATS Records by Sport